Super Tuesday predictions using eBay – Barack and McCain

by Steve on February 5, 2008 · 0 comments

Super Tuesday is here and people are voting in 21 states across the nation. I have used Terapeak to track eBay sales related to the various candidates throughout the past several months. In doing so, I've seen a very interesting trend over the past month. (See the chart below)

Barack pulls way ahead of Hillary

Throughout the entire year, Hillary Clinton supporters or fans have kept her name at the top of the list with the highest number of listings, sell-through rate, and total sales. In the month of January though, Barack Obama has swamped her on eBay. Over twice as many listings, 10% higher sell-through rate, higher average price, and $15,000 higher total sales. Wow. Talk about a surge, Mr. Obama even beat Ron Paul, and Hillary only did that once. This surge of support for Barack Obama has me predicting he will be the overall winner at the end of the day today, and ultimately receive the Democrat nomination for president.

Ron Paul still ahead, bless his heart

Ron Paul has led one of the most interesting campaigns I've ever seen. His supporters are fascinating. They have used eBay in ways no other presidential campaign ever has. More than any other candidate, his supporters have used eBay to sell campaign materials supporting their man. They've been amazing.

The actual results though, show he doesn't have much of a chance at really receiving the nomination. So although he's been on top of the Republican list all year, I'm looking further down the list.

Mike Huckabee has also had a following on eBay, but again, looking at the situation so far this year and the states since Iowa I have to say there hasn't been much new movement. I'm moving down the list to John McCain.

McCain has had the biggest surge in eBay activity over the past month. In fact I actually took him off the list at one point because I thought he was about to pack up and quit. So to see him have over a thousand listings to his name, with a 55% sell-through rate is pretty impressive. I think things are building for John McCain. I predict he'll squeak by tonight when all the votes are in.

Mitt Romney continues to be the most boring candidate left. With a 39% sell-through rate, I won't be buying any Mitt Romney merchandise just yet for resale on eBay. It's ironic too - since he, Meg, and John Donahoe are acquaintances. Is Mitt getting the eBay seller backlash? Could eBay's recent changes have shifted the Presidential Race and ultimately changed world history? Oh the humanity!

Here's the chart: jan08.jpg

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