The big eBay analyst day is over. As usual I don't claim to understand all their jargon. But as the dust settles a few things are becoming more clear. "2011 is going to be a huge year for sellers. Can you just hang out till then?" is the basic message from the eBay execs.
Here's what I got out of the whole mess:
- John Donahoe and his team have no hope of getting the eBay marketplace back on track anytime soon.
- PayPal is keeping eBay afloat.
- Skype is in the "detail shop" and will soon be put on the lot.
- John Donahoe loves to use the word "synergies" (no, seriously - he really, really loves it).
Listening in during the call, I am pretty sure I heard several of the following sounds:
- Gasps
- Snoring
- The sounds of origami swans being made
Not to say it was a boring letdown, but those swans are S-W-E-E-T!
Scot Wingo offered up the following bullet points on his blog (www.eBayStrategies.com) this morning:
John Donahoe said the eBay marketplace "isn't keeping up"
- Continues to fall short of our expectations - not acceptable
- Held on to past too long
- Made changes. They were necessary but not enough
- Dedicated to new eBay - focused on where we can win
Here's my commentary on John's points:
- John, your expectations are based on a faulty premise. If you wouldn't have fooled around with a successful marketplace, you would not be disappointed.
- The reason people were (trying) to hold on to the past is because it was successful. Just as you said to the Legg-Mason group: We had to create a vision of the future so people could let go of a very successful past. - Your words John, not mine.
- Right. Now you sound like the carpenter that says, "No matter how many times I cut this board, it's still too short."
- A "new eBay" - oh man. Anyone remember "New Coke"?
After those opening remarks the day got on to real business. Mr. Donahoe says not much will happen in 2009, in fact things may slide backward a bit. Then in 2010 things will improve, and in 2011 watch out! Because the "New eBay" will be the "secondary market" king!
Can you wait that long?
My question is, can sellers wait till 2011 to see an improvement? Will they wait? I really don't think so. The once strong eBay community is fading. The emotional attachment many sellers felt for eBay is weakening. Once eBay gets to wherever they are going, they will have lost the big solid sellers.
With many sellers' sales faltering on eBay, they are turning to Amazon, and other sites for relief. eBay has to get itself in shape soon - two years from now will be too late. This is not rocket science.
Other Flip-Flops from Yesterday
Big John also declared that "we are not a retailer" (insert sounds of crickets) - That was a change from his previous statements to the contrary and probably came as a big surprise to the National Retail Federation, where John was just announced as a key upcoming speaker:
eBay Inc. President and CEO to Speak at Shop.org Annual Summit
Washington, February 18, 2009 – John Donahoe, President and CEO of eBay Inc., will address over 2,000 online and multichannel retail executives during Shop.org’s Annual Summit at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino, September 21-23, 2009.
Mr. Donahoe also basically stated that eBay was going to return to it's roots as the web's flea market by selling liquidated and secondary goods. Just a year ago he was poo-poo'ing the flea market image of eBay. Gheez. Nothing like having a clear vision.
So my question is this: if eBay is moving to the secondary market items, what is the best way to list that inventory? The answer? Auctions. Which way is eBay headed with auctions? They are diminishing them. So in the end, eBay will go the way of other mediocre sites offering stuff no one wanted when it was in the stores. Brilliant! I can't wait for 2011!
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Another flip flop perhaps.
Seems President Lorrie Norrington was pushing so called “free” shipping yesterday weeks after CEO Donahoe said,
“Powerbuyers look at the total cost. They aren’t fooled by free shipping, they look at total cost.”
at the Goldman Sachs presentation February 27.
My windorphins are tingly once again.
Finally finding a direction for your marketplace, which is coincidentally the direction that you steered it away from 12 months ago – Priceless.
Innovative Disruption at it’s greatest….
(Yes, I am sure that Donahoe has Disruptive Innovation a*s backward by now too)
Kevin